1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	240980	Blood on the Clocktower	Current	1,041	7.79	6.22	3.07
			Estimated	500	7.54	5.94	1.94

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In the quiet village of Ravenswood Bluff, ‌a demon walks amongst you... During a hellish thunderstorm, on the stroke of midnight, there echoes a bone-chilling scream. The townsfolk rush to investigate and find the town storyteller murdered, their body impaled on the hands of the clocktower, blood dripping onto the cobblestones below. A Demon is on the loose, murdering by night and disguised in human form by day. Some have scraps of information. Others have abilities that fight the evil or protect the innocent. But the Demon and its evil minions are spreading lies to confuse and breed suspicion. Will the good townsfolk put the puzzle together in time to execute the true demon and save themselves? Or will evil overrun this once peaceful village? Blood on the Clocktower is a bluffing game enjoyed by 5 to 20 players on opposing teams of Good and Evil, overseen by a Storyteller player who conducts the action and makes crucial decisions. The goal of the game is to successfully deduce and execute the demons before they outnumber the townfolk. During a 'day' phase players socialize openly and whisper privately to trade knowledge or spread lies, culminating in a player's execution if a majority suspects them of being Evil. Of a 'night' time, players close their eyes and are woken one at a time by the Storyteller to gather information, spread mischief, or kill. The Storyteller uses the game's intricate playing pieces to guide each game, leaving others free to play without a table or board. Players stay in the thick of the action to the very end even if their characters are killed, haunting Ravenswood Bluff as ghosts trying to win from beyond the grave. If you arrive late to a game, you can enter after it's started as a powerful Traveller character with unusual talents and questionable allegiances. Each character comes with their own special ability and no two players in a game are ever the same character.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/240980

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Blood on the Clocktower? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Blood on the Clocktower. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Blood on the Clocktower. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	240980	Blood on the Clocktower	1.00	6.22	7.79	1.94	1,041
1	2017	236475	Best of Werewolves of Miller's Hollow	0.87	5.60	7.13	2.00	131
2	2009	59335	Wherewolf	0.87	5.63	7.35	2.06	153
3	2019	254314	Hidden Panda	0.86	5.50	5.63		31
4	2001	25821	The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow	0.86	6.48	6.72	1.31	10,569
5	2009	56885	The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow: The Village	0.86	5.93	6.89	1.71	779
6	1986	925	Werewolf	0.86	6.19	6.52	1.39	4,463
7	2001	63539	Lupus in Tabula	0.86	5.79	6.47	1.20	867
8	2013	129603	Παλέρμο: Το Μεγάλο Ξεκαθάρισμα	0.85	5.52	6.82	1.00	37
9	2012	166019	Mafia: Vendetta	0.85	5.54	6.17	1.75	132
10	2007	28047	Covert Action	0.84	5.45	5.16	1.36	252
11	2013	130877	Blood Bound	0.84	5.98	6.59	1.66	1,516
12	2013	156648	Blood of the Werewolf	0.83	5.48	5.29	1.89	72
13	2019	286891	The Last Station	0.83	5.52	8.59	3.00	37
14	2016	191178	Wolfed	0.83	5.53	6.67	1.00	60
15	2007	27682	Ultimate Werewolf: Whitebox Edition	0.83	5.53	6.32	1.33	75
16	2010	67148	Ultimate Werewolf: Compact Edition	0.83	5.63	6.72	1.44	217
17	2007	35023	The Origin of Expressions	0.83	5.49	5.37	1.36	80
18	2008	38159	Ultimate Werewolf: Ultimate Edition	0.83	6.49	6.99	1.48	3,909
19	2013	155020	Animals Frightening Night!	0.83	5.54	6.22	1.57	114
20	2017	227010	Game of Trolls	0.82	5.50	5.97	1.50	34
21	2013	134352	Two Rooms and a Boom	0.82	6.56	6.99	1.43	4,702
22	2016	205776	Gentleman's Deal	0.82	5.51	6.14	1.00	59
23	2011	94365	Sultans of Karaya	0.82	5.62	6.32	1.78	337
24	2007	32471	Mafia	0.82	5.51	5.65	1.33	330
25	2006	22344	Fatal Rendez Vous	0.81	5.51	5.98	2.00	48

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Blood on the Clocktower while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	240980	Blood on the Clocktower	6.22	1.00	6.22	7.79	1.94	1,041
1	2012	128882	The Resistance: Avalon	5.80	0.79	7.38	7.56	1.76	29,510
2	2001	25821	The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow	5.58	0.86	6.48	6.72	1.31	10,569
3	2016	188834	Secret Hitler	5.48	0.75	7.28	7.54	1.67	21,926
4	2013	134352	Two Rooms and a Boom	5.39	0.82	6.56	6.99	1.43	4,702
5	2008	38159	Ultimate Werewolf: Ultimate Edition	5.36	0.83	6.49	6.99	1.48	3,909
6	1986	925	Werewolf	5.30	0.86	6.19	6.52	1.39	4,463
7	2009	56885	The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow: The Village	5.08	0.86	5.93	6.89	1.71	779
8	2013	130877	Blood Bound	5.00	0.84	5.98	6.59	1.66	1,516
9	2001	63539	Lupus in Tabula	4.96	0.86	5.79	6.47	1.20	867
10	2005	24068	Shadow Hunters	4.95	0.76	6.54	6.82	1.82	8,288
11	2015	176558	Mafia de Cuba	4.90	0.79	6.21	6.55	1.48	3,894
12	2009	59335	Wherewolf	4.89	0.87	5.63	7.35	2.06	153
13	2017	236475	Best of Werewolves of Miller's Hollow	4.88	0.87	5.60	7.13	2.00	131
14	2016	236217	Timebomb	4.82	0.78	6.17	7.16	1.06	1,278
15	2018	225167	Human Punishment: Social Deduction 2.0	4.81	0.77	6.24	7.76	2.60	1,519
16	2017	226634	The Thing: Infection at Outpost 31	4.75	0.77	6.15	7.29	2.35	1,311
17	2019	254314	Hidden Panda	4.75	0.86	5.50	5.63		31
18	2013	129603	Παλέρμο: Το Μεγάλο Ξεκαθάρισμα	4.71	0.85	5.52	6.82	1.00	37
19	2017	218530	Tortuga 1667	4.71	0.74	6.33	6.94	1.98	2,860
20	2012	166019	Mafia: Vendetta	4.70	0.85	5.54	6.17	1.75	132
21	2010	67148	Ultimate Werewolf: Compact Edition	4.68	0.83	5.63	6.72	1.44	217
22	2016	206915	Tempel des Schreckens	4.63	0.74	6.29	7.11	1.15	1,758
23	2015	176361	One Night Revolution	4.60	0.80	5.78	6.11	1.86	1,602
24	2016	191178	Wolfed	4.60	0.83	5.53	6.67	1.00	60
25	2007	27682	Ultimate Werewolf: Whitebox Edition	4.59	0.83	5.53	6.32	1.33	75

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	240980	Blood on the Clocktower	The Pandemonium Institute	Steven Medway	Micaela Dawn	Horror	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Betting and Bluffing
					John Van Fleet	Murder/Mystery	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Deduction
						Party Game	Game: Werewolf / Mafia	Hidden Roles
								Negotiation
								Player Elimination
								Team-Based Game
								Variable Player Powers
								Voting

Individual Game Analysis